JC / Railbird

Triple Crown

Derby Day 2017

Kentucky Derby card picks are now up on Hello Race Fans. I’m all alone on the grid with Thunder Snow, who’s 17-1 in the early wagering. Contenders coming out of the UAE Derby don’t have a great record at Churchill Downs, but I like his post, his running style, and even that Godolphin didn’t ship him from Newmarket until last Sunday. He’s also getting Lasix for the first time. Every Derby trainer says they’re confident in their horse(s), and Saeed Bin Suroor is no exception, telling the Racing Post:

“I am very excited,” said Bin Suroor. “I have been waiting for this moment for a very long time to bring a horse with a big chance to run in the greatest race in America.”

I was also thinking a bit about the UAE Derby and why form in it hasn’t successfully translated at Churchill in the past. It used to be an outlier, timing-wise, being six weeks before the Kentucky Derby. But everyone is getting pushed back now — the Sunland Derby (Hence) and Spiral Stakes (Fast and Accurate) are six weeks out, the Florida Derby (Always Dreaming) is five weeks, and the rest of the final preps, with the exception of the Arkansas Derby, are four weeks. Horses entering the Derby on two preps have also become more common. I suspect that in terms of fitness, the UAE Derby’s place on the schedule is no longer quite as detrimental to Derby chances.

Look, it’s the Derby, and as Eric Banks writes in the New York Times today:

… no Derby seems to come out exactly as they expected in advance, which is the one, somewhat counterintuitive lesson provided by repeat exposure, year after year.

There’s something about every Kentucky Derby result that surprises. Maybe the contender from Dubai can deliver a little shock this year.

Posted in Racing on May 6, 2017 / Tagged Derby Picks, Kentucky Derby, Thunder Snow, Triple Crown

Rivalry

Exaggerator wins the 2016 Preakness ahead of Cherry Wine and Nyquist.

And Corey Lanerie on the runner-up gives winning jockey Kent Desormeaux a pat on the back as they gallop out after the wire.

Exaggerator gets a Beyer speed figure of 101 for his Preakness Stakes win over Pimlico’s sloppy track on Saturday. TimeformUS gives him a speed figure of 122, the same number assigned Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist for running third, quashing a Triple Crown bid. The two go on to the Belmont Stakes for a rematch in three weeks, and now that Exaggerator has finally beaten Nyquist — in the fifth race featuring the two of them — we have a rivalry.

So, what about the mud? “Thank the good Lord for raining on us today,” said a member of Exaggerator’s ownership team in the winner’s circle. “You have to think that the track means a lot to his performances, but his fast-track performances are not bad, either,” said rider Kent Desormeaux.

And what about the pace? Pretty similar to the Kentucky Derby, with the slight difference that Nyquist pushed to the lead and moved into the front early. He ran the first quarter with Uncle Lino in :22.38, the first half in :46.56, and the first three-quarters in 1:11.97. Here are the DRF incremental fractions:

View the official Equibase chart (PDF).

Nyquist won the Derby despite chasing a quick first quarter and running his final quarter three seconds slower; it was an impressive performance. In the Preakness, he was tired, and Exaggerator, tracking on the rail, was in place to take advantage. “The colt shimmied up the backstretch like a seal, utterly enjoying it,” and Desormeaux rode with confidence. Watch the Preakness replay, and see how he angles out and into the lead in the stretch:

5/24/16 Update: Nyquist spikes a fever, will skip Belmont Stakes.

Posted in Racing on May 22, 2016 / Tagged Exaggerator, Nyquist, Pimlico, Preakness Stakes, Triple Crown

Shore Thing

Alert! American Pharoah has arrived at Monmouth Park for Sunday’s Haskell. Let the beautiful, absurd hoopla begin. Fans were there to greet him at the Atlantic City airport, and an even bigger crowd awaited him at the barn. The Triple Crown winner is about to make his first start since the Belmont Stakes. He looks sculpted, and if possible, even more of a beast than he did just seven weeks ago. Trainer Bob Baffert has worked him three times in 10 days. Tuesday, he breezed four furlongs in :48.80 at Del Mar. July 23, he worked six furlongs in 1:11, more than three seconds faster than the other 11 workers at the distance (a group that included 5-year-old Grade 3 winner Bal a Bali). “He keeps getting stronger,” Baffert said in Tuesday’s NTRA teleconference.

The likely field for the Haskell is Competitive Edge, Keen Ice, Mr. Jordan, Tekton, Top Clearance, Upstart, and War Story. Competitive Edge and Upstart are cross-entered in the Jim Dandy; Tekton is another whose connections are hedging their bets. The decision may now be easier for them — Monmouth announced today that the Haskell purse has been raised to $1.75 million:

Monmouth Park Racetrack has announced a $750,000 purse increase to the William Hill Haskell Invitational, which is to be renewed for the 48th time this Sunday, Aug. 2.

“The Haskell has been called the fourth jewel of the Triple Crown,” said Bob Kulina, president of Darby Development LLC, operators of Monmouth Park Racetrack. “With the Derby purse at $2 million and the Preakness and Belmont going to $1.5 million, it’s only fitting that we join in that mix for our race, which has proven itself the next logical step for 3-year-olds following the Triple Crown.”

The Haskell runner-up will earn more than about as much as the Jim Dandy winner ($350,000/$360,000). Trainer Rick Violette was swayed by the added money, telling David Grening that Upstart will go to New Jersey.

Of course, the purse increase also:

… recognizes the prestige of a Triple Crown winner running at Monmouth.

Ah! The prestige.

Posted in Racing on July 29, 2015 / Tagged American Pharoah, Haskell, Monmouth Park, Triple Crown

The Marvel

From Tim Layden’s Triple Crown epilogue:

… Pharoah’s performance in his recent resumption of training would seem to indicate that he remains at the top of his game. “The only time he’s ever come back to the barn blowing and tired was after the Derby,” says Baffert. That race, according to Baffert and jockey Victor Espinoza, remains a marvel. “He was empty with a half mile left in the race,” says Baffert. “I mean empty.” Espinoza says, “I started riding him at the half-mile pole and I’m like ‘Holy s—! What’s happening here?” Says Baffert, “You got a horse that’s empty, and wins the Kentucky Derby, that’s a great horse. People told me, ‘You’ve got to run against older horses.’ Trust me, I’m not worried about older horses. Not with this guy.”

It’s begun — as the legend of American Pharoah’s Triple Crown win grows, it’ll be the Kentucky Derby that increasingly stands out as his greatest challenge, the race that defines his accomplishment.

Posted in Racing on July 15, 2015 / Tagged American Pharoah, Great Horses, Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown