Nicanor’s Odds?
I know it’s nearly sacrilegious to discuss anything but the Belmont Stakes this week, but a hot debate has erupted in my office concerning what Nicanor’s odds will be when he debuts.
For those who don’t know, Nicanor is the late Barbaro’s full brother. He’s a two-year-old currently in training with Michael Matz at Fair Hill. The Blood Horse’s Claire Novak has been maintaining a blog dedicated to the colt’s development.
In discussing Novak’s most recent entry, I said to a coworker that I am enjoying the hype because it will lead to Nicanor being the “bet-against of the millennium” when he finally debuts. My coworker disagreed saying that the public does not necessarily hammer pedigree plays first-time out.
To me, though, this is not a pedigree play so much as a hype play. The Green Monkey is the primary example of this. He was 1-to-2 in his debut despite the fact that it took 1 1/2 years for him to start following his record sale. His workouts were excruciatingly slow, and the backstretch whispers indicated that he couldn’t beat any of trainer Todd Pletcher’s most inferior workmates.
Still, the $16-million horse was finally in a race, and he was 1-to-2 when finishing third by seven lengths. He started twice more and was favored both times.
This is not meant as a commentary on what level of success Nicanor can achieve. Good horses run to or even out run their odds many times. For every Big Brown, who paid $29.40 when he won his debut, there is a Casino Drive, who was 1-to-5 when he won his debut.
I say Nicanor couldn’t possibly be higher than even money when he runs, and if he debuts at Laurel or Delaware then 1-to-2 is probably the ceiling. My coworker says that no one could possibly make the projection without seeing how he’s been training, who else is in the race, etc.
What say you?
Today’s Longshot Flyer
KEE, R7: Olemiss Rebel (ML 15-1). [Never mind, Olemiss scratched. Thanks to EJXD2 and Mr. Railbird for the alerts. EJXD2 points to Acoma (3-1) in this spot, which I can see, although Allseas (10-1), on the improve, stretching out, and making her third start, intrigues me a little more.]
I Heart Synthetics
Thanks for all the great comments on this post linking to Andrew Beyer’s column about the Blue Grass. I’m reminded of why I enjoy this game so much: It’s a perpetual puzzle that attracts smart people and spirited discussion, and it’s one of the few hobbies or pursuits that doesn’t just reward contrarianism, but practically demands it.
I like synthetic surfaces: I went to Turfway in 2006 to see Polytrack up close, I started following the Southern California circuit with the advent of Cushion Track at Hollywood, I prefer playing Keeneland Polytrack to Keeneland dirt. Putting aside the safety question, I enjoy handicapping these surfaces. I like that stamina is rewarded and cheap speed folds, that new pedigree plays are popping up. Synthetics shake up the scene, create new challenges and betting opportunities, and if they’re properly installed and maintained, they play fair. Like commenter ‘Crunk, I’ve found there are differences between the surfaces — just as there between dirt tracks — and I’ve adjusted my handicapping.
I won’t argue that some surfaces aren’t quirkier than others — that the pick six at Keeneland went unhit for seven days and that favorites through Sunday had won only 18% of races (although, favorites did finish in the money 63% of the time, so it’s not total chaos in Kentucky), suggests horses and handicappers are struggling with the surface there — but neither am I willing to throw up my hands and declare synthetic track results bizarre and incomprehensible, at least not any more so than I would other surfaces, such as Aqueduct’s inner dirt mid-winter.
As for the Blue Grass and what it means for the Derby: Monba is a solid and versatile, if uninspiring, colt. Throw out the Fountain of Youth, credit his myectomy for the Blue Grass turnaround, and you’re left with a middling horse who could win the Derby if this year’s field were filled with similarly dull beasts. (Aside: When will horseplayers get disclosure of surgical procedures performed between races? It’s ridiculous that Monba flipped his palate and had throat surgery to prevent another displacement and that wasn’t officially reported anywhere.) Pyro didn’t take to the track and he didn’t show anything in the stretch. He seems to have come out of the race fine, so he’ll almost certainly bounce back to his pre-Keeneland performance level in the Derby, but it won’t be enough, no matter how well he works. That says more about the rigors of the Derby than it does about the surface of the Blue Grass.
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Related: Ellis Starr says “Adapt or die!” when it comes to synthetic surfaces. That’s harsher than I’d put it, but it’s not the worst advice …
Synth to Dirt, No Problem
A little breakfast time research yields this nugget:
Of the 460 nominees to the Triple Crown, 61 have made the switch from a synthetic surface to a fast dirt track. Of those, 47 improved or replicated their synthetic form on dirt.
Details in this Google doc. Only horses who raced primarily on synthetics at the start of their careers and who switched from such a surface to a fast dirt track are included (so horses whose single dirt starts were over the Monmouth slop of the 2007 Breeders’ Cup are not represented). Also, I made no distinctions between synthetic surfaces and didn’t consider class or distance changes. Generally, results were marked positive (P) if a horse showed an improved BSF and/or finish position, negative (N) if the opposite, and consistent (C) if it ran +/- 3 BSF and/or showed similar placing.
The odds are good that the California synthetic surface form of Colonel John and Bob Black Jack will hold up at Churchill.
Related: Andrew Beyer rants:
But in the 3-year-old stakes races that precede the Kentucky Derby, the presence of synthetic tracks has not merely complicated the game. It has made rational handicapping judgments almost impossible.
Not really. Synthetics are different, but not inexplicable.
Today’s Longshot Flyer
KEE, R5: Life Lesson (ML 12-1). [Results: Sent off at 7-1 odds, Life Lesson broke alertly, took an early lead, and gamely hung on through the stretch to win. But, she was disqualified and bumped to third for so-called interference after drifting into the path of Dan’s Pride — note, into the path, not into the horse or even all that near — who deadheated for second with Temper Temper. I’m quite disappointed.]
Kip Seville, a full sister to BC Mile winner Kip Deville (who captured the Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland on Friday in his return to the track), also starts in this race. The gray 3-year-old filly made her debut in February at the Fair Grounds in a turf route, a race in which she ran wide throughout and was never involved. She makes the switch to Polytrack here, cuts back to seven furlongs, gets blinkers, and at 15-1 morning line, warrants a look in this spot. [Showed some improvement with the blinkers and ran much closer to the pace; definitely one for the watch list.]
Also True of PPs
Bill James on baseball stats: “I would say generally that baseball statistics are always trying to mislead you, and that it is a constant battle not to be misled by them.”
Saturday’s Longshot Flyer
TP, R2: Maajnoon (ML 30-1). [Results: Off at 81-1 in her debut, Maajnoon finished dead last in a field of 12.]
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Briefly, the Bourbonette Oaks: Both A to the Croft and Clearly Foxy have run well in graded stakes, but neither have started since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and could need a race. Valentine Fever came back gamely to beat Love Buzz in the Valdale at Turfway last month; Lovers Spat finished third in that race. I’m going to go with Maren’s Meadow, coming off a second place finish to Sky Mom in the tough Martha Washington Stakes at 9-1. She’s by the late Meadowlake, whose offspring have not excelled on synthetic tracks, but I like her speed and recency over this bunch. [Results: Maren’s Meadow got a dream trip, stalked the pace, drew away, paid $17.60 to win.]
The Bad and the Troubled
“The obvious trouble with trouble is it might have happened to a slow horse.”
Winners Win Races
Seven weeks into the meet, Steve Zacks runs some Gulfstream stats and finds recent wins matter:
Winners win races! Be they trainers, jockeys or the horses themselves. A recent win is an important factor to take into consideration in handicapping. After eliminating the races for maidens, 249 races for winners have been offered. Of those winners, 183 had won at least one of their previous five starts, and 59 were repeating a last-out victory. From the 59 repeaters, 24 had won at least one other race in their last five.
Zacks doesn’t provide the total number of starters who won last out, but it’s probably safe to assume the percentage is lower than the 23% of winners who won last out.
Today’s Longshot Flyer
AQU, R2: E Z Dollar (ML 10-1). [Results: Wearing blinkers for the first time, E Z Dollar drew clear in the stretch, paid $19.60 to win.]
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