JC / Railbird

Handicapping Archive

Refreshing

Medication positives and (negative) EPO tests, nothingness and debates over the definition of blogging — reading the latest DRF+ column by James Quinn is a tonic, because it’s about handicapping — specifically, about pairs of figures as predictors of form. Remember handicapping? It’s what we used to do, before the Triple Crown season imploded.

Posted in Handicapping on June 30, 2008

Today’s Longshot Flyer

BEL, R8: Unbridled Refrain (ML 20-1). If scratched/off turf, Pluracity (ML 12-1). Looking for the former to wake up on grass, like the speed and in-the-money record of the latter. [Results: Unbridled Refrain scratched, which was probably just as well, since this race came up quite competitive. Pluracity tracked the pace, then faded to finish fifth at 7-1. This was the leg that kicked me out of the pick six, leaving me in the running for 5-of-6 only if either Ten Forty or Stand Pat won the ninth race. Ten Forty did, at 3-5, but the pick six, which had swelled to $4.4 million by the start, still paid a generous $103,754 to 29 winners, thanks to 10-1 Youbethecan in the fifth and 23-1 Willsboro Point in the sixth. Willsboro should have been the longshot flyer here, since he’s the sort of horse I love in these spots — lightly-raced, solid efforts in three of his five starts, beat non-winners of two last out, etc. — and figured to be overlooked in a way Pluracity wouldn’t in the eighth. Next time.]

Posted in Handicapping on June 11, 2008

Nicanor’s Odds?

I know it’s nearly sacrilegious to discuss anything but the Belmont Stakes this week, but a hot debate has erupted in my office concerning what Nicanor’s odds will be when he debuts.
For those who don’t know, Nicanor is the late Barbaro’s full brother. He’s a two-year-old currently in training with Michael Matz at Fair Hill. The Blood Horse’s Claire Novak has been maintaining a blog dedicated to the colt’s development.
In discussing Novak’s most recent entry, I said to a coworker that I am enjoying the hype because it will lead to Nicanor being the “bet-against of the millennium” when he finally debuts. My coworker disagreed saying that the public does not necessarily hammer pedigree plays first-time out.
To me, though, this is not a pedigree play so much as a hype play. The Green Monkey is the primary example of this. He was 1-to-2 in his debut despite the fact that it took 1 1/2 years for him to start following his record sale. His workouts were excruciatingly slow, and the backstretch whispers indicated that he couldn’t beat any of trainer Todd Pletcher’s most inferior workmates.
Still, the $16-million horse was finally in a race, and he was 1-to-2 when finishing third by seven lengths. He started twice more and was favored both times.
This is not meant as a commentary on what level of success Nicanor can achieve. Good horses run to or even out run their odds many times. For every Big Brown, who paid $29.40 when he won his debut, there is a Casino Drive, who was 1-to-5 when he won his debut.
I say Nicanor couldn’t possibly be higher than even money when he runs, and if he debuts at Laurel or Delaware then 1-to-2 is probably the ceiling. My coworker says that no one could possibly make the projection without seeing how he’s been training, who else is in the race, etc.
What say you?

Posted in Betting, Handicapping, Horses, Pedigree Handicapping on June 4, 2008

Today’s Longshot Flyer

KEE, R7: Olemiss Rebel (ML 15-1). [Never mind, Olemiss scratched. Thanks to EJXD2 and Mr. Railbird for the alerts. EJXD2 points to Acoma (3-1) in this spot, which I can see, although Allseas (10-1), on the improve, stretching out, and making her third start, intrigues me a little more.]

Posted in Handicapping on April 18, 2008