Railbird 2004–2019

Handicapping Archive

Today’s Longshot Flyer

BEL, R8: So It Goes (ML 20-1). Lightly raced, gets blinkers, class test in the French Colonial, a delightfully competitive Thursday afternoon stakes with a ho-hum 3-1 morning line favorite in El Sultry Sun, coming off a seventh-place finish in the rain-soaked G3 Colonial Turf Cup. Also of much interest as a live longshot is Dynhocracy (ML 10-1), who had a troubled trip and finished fifth in the June G3 Hill Prince, his first start in nearly four months. Willsboro Point (ML 6-1), a smart claim for trainer Scott Schwartz three back, looks the most likely pacesetter, and I wouldn’t put it past him, with Eibar Coa up, to steal the race with soft fractions.
[Results: So It Goes, sent off as the longest shot in the field at 14-1, finished fourth. No early speed, that one, despite the first-time blinkers. Fourth choice Willsboro Point won by 1 1/2 lengths at 5-1 and did so by rating kindly, settling in behind an eager Run Sully Run and waiting through fractions of :48.88 and 1:12.87 before drawing away and running the final eighth in a stellar :11.78. The Point Given gelding (out of G3-winning mare Petrouchka) claimed for $35,000 by Schwartz on May 24 now boasts a record of 8-4-0-2.]

Posted in Handicapping on July 10, 2008

Baughs of Hollywood

The card today (July 5) at Hollywood is among the best I’ve seen this year, and the $1.2-million carryover certainly adds some excitement. Here are some thoughts:
Race 3, $100,000 HolJuvCh-G3
Should a Lightnin N Thunder two-year-old ever cost $400,000? I guess we won’t find out today since Nochangenweather scratched, but that is a hefty price for a colt by a $4,000 stallion.
This seems like a race where you either love the morning line favorite, #4 Azul Leon, or you have go really deep.
Race 5, $300,000 VanityH-G1
I can’t remember the last time I thought a horse was as unbeatable in a spot as Zenyatta looks in this race. Still, I think there could be some value in beating Tough Tiz’s Sis underneath.
How great was last year’s Kentucky Oaks? Rags to Riches won with Octave, TTS, Sealy Hill, and Dreaming of Anna all in the mix as well. Wow!

Race 7, $750,000 CshCllMl-G2
I love the way Lady of Venice is coming into this race and the way Kiaran has talked about this mare in preparing to ship west. Ventura will be a quarter the price she was last out and is an underlay.
Race 8, $66,000 AlwN1X
#11 Tizsweetdreams will take too much money here and is a nice horse to beat while starting a pick four. I’ll use #s 3, 5, 10.
Race 9, $750,000 AmrcnOks-G1
Another vulnerable favorite (morning line, at least) in #1 Pure Clan, who despite the undefeated record on turf, just doesn’t strike me as a Grade 1 horse going 1 1/4 miles on the weeds.
I’m looking Eurovision here with #9 Carribean Sunset and #3 Satan’s Circus, both of which are win bets at their morning line prices. These are just legitimate Grade 1 horses whereas the American entrants have not proved themselves at that level yet.
Race 10, $300,000 TrplBndH-G1
Street Boss is boss. There’s speed in the race, and he will be rolling late.
Race 11, $65,000 Md Sp Wt
If #9 Surprises Welcome moves up on turf, then she’s an easy winner here. If she doesn’t, then #1s Alley Theater or #5 Cheryl’s Surprise look to offer the most value.
I was at Santa Anita Park on Sunday in which there was a double carryover, and the atmosphere was electric. I can’t imagine what Hollywood Park will be like going into that sixth race today.
It’s easy to pick apart what’s wrong with horse racing, but this Hollywood card shows you what’s right: Full fields, a chance for a big score, Grade 1 racing … enjoy!

Posted in Handicapping on July 5, 2008

Neither Salty nor Sour

Play of the day: Bitterbutsweet (#3) in the Flawlessly Stakes (Race 8) on Friday at Hollywood Park.
I’ve had this one on my watch list since before her debut because she is kin to For Always, a horse who impressed me as a two-year-old on the Kentucky circuit.
Obviously, Bitterbutsweet is a long way from Turf Paradise (where she was a stakes winner) and Northern California (where she finished second behind a next out Grade 2 winner), but Tarabilla Farms saw something it liked when it bought this Lemon Drop Kid filly and shipped her south to the barn of David Hofmans.
Yeah, said trainer is winless at the meet, and Aaron Gryder isn’t my favorite turf jockey, but if Hofmans gets any improvement out of this one following the seven-week layoff then she’s in the mix at 15-to-1 ML.

Posted in Handicapping on July 4, 2008

Refreshing

Medication positives and (negative) EPO tests, nothingness and debates over the definition of blogging — reading the latest DRF+ column by James Quinn is a tonic, because it’s about handicapping — specifically, about pairs of figures as predictors of form. Remember handicapping? It’s what we used to do, before the Triple Crown season imploded.

Posted in Handicapping on June 30, 2008

Today’s Longshot Flyer

BEL, R8: Unbridled Refrain (ML 20-1). If scratched/off turf, Pluracity (ML 12-1). Looking for the former to wake up on grass, like the speed and in-the-money record of the latter. [Results: Unbridled Refrain scratched, which was probably just as well, since this race came up quite competitive. Pluracity tracked the pace, then faded to finish fifth at 7-1. This was the leg that kicked me out of the pick six, leaving me in the running for 5-of-6 only if either Ten Forty or Stand Pat won the ninth race. Ten Forty did, at 3-5, but the pick six, which had swelled to $4.4 million by the start, still paid a generous $103,754 to 29 winners, thanks to 10-1 Youbethecan in the fifth and 23-1 Willsboro Point in the sixth. Willsboro should have been the longshot flyer here, since he’s the sort of horse I love in these spots — lightly-raced, solid efforts in three of his five starts, beat non-winners of two last out, etc. — and figured to be overlooked in a way Pluracity wouldn’t in the eighth. Next time.]

Posted in Handicapping on June 11, 2008