JC / Railbird

Handicapping Archive

At the Red Rock …

And an hour to go before the first mandatory race of the National Handicapping Championship. I’m in Las Vegas for the event, which appears to be off to a good start, and that’s about the only insight I can provide. Check out DRF for contest recaps and standings and John Pricci’s NHC and World Series reports on Horse Race Insider for updates.

Posted in Handicapping on January 25, 2008

Today’s Longshot Flyer

AQU, R6: Awesome I Am (ML 15-1). [Results: Awesome I Am was awesome indeed, paying $14.60 to win.]

Posted in Handicapping on January 9, 2008

Privileging Speed

“You have to go to a bull ring like Great Lakes Downs to find a similar speed bias,” writes Dick Powell of Gulfstream’s main track speed bias during last year’s meet, raising a point I’ve touched on here in posts about synthetic surfaces:

Can you imagine the outcry if this was a synthetic racing surface and it had such a pronounced bias? Synthetic racing surface critics pounded Del Mar’s Polytrack this summer yet where are they with Gulfstream’s main track? Just like a speed horse was at a big disadvantage trying to go two turns on Del Mar’s main track, horses trying to rally off the pace are at an equal disadvantage in sprint races on Gulfstream’s main track.

As I wrote last summer about handicapping Polytrack:

Synthetics expose cheap speed for what it is, allowing horses coming from off the pace or far back to run their races. We call this favoring closers only because speed horses and speed-biased dirt tracks have become so dominant.

Privileging speed is the norm; few think twice about tracks favoring front-runners. It’ll be a while before that changes. [BRIS link via the always excellent Left at the Gate.]

Posted in Handicapping, Synthetic Surfaces on January 5, 2008

Today’s Longshot Flyer

AQU, R4: Weekwee (ML 15-1). [Results: Off at 35-1, Weekwee had no rally, finished sixth.]

Posted in Handicapping on January 3, 2008

Resolutions Already Broken

John Pricci makes some New Year’s anti-resolutions:

I make no resolutions, usually, but this year I’m making an exception: I resolve to play no more superfectas. I’ve hit one — just one — in the past four years. Record keeping — possibly my last New Year’s resolution, made in 2004 — can yield useful nuggets.

Posted in Handicapping on January 2, 2008

Pletcher Strikes Out Again

With Argentina scratched from the third race, trainer Todd Pletcher had his best chance for a win today with Wingspan, who went off as the 1-2 favorite in the allowance event and then ran like a 10-1 shot, finishing third. Pletcher went 0-for-5 today, bringing his record to 0-for-26 since August 11. It’s time to ask: What’s up with Pletcher at the Spa? The supertrainer is 24% wins, 53% in the money for the past 90 days overall; 33% wins, 64% in the money at Monmouth this summer; 23% wins, 54% in the money at Arlington. But at Saratoga, he’s 12% wins, 35% in the money. That’s a cold streak for TPI, a trend that can’t be ignored …

Posted in Handicapping on August 22, 2007

Laurel Cuts Takeout to 10%

Laurel joins the reduced-takeout revolution, at least for the summer, cutting takeout on all wagers to 10% for their upcoming 10-day meet. With an additional state-required 1.4% withheld, takeout is a mere 11.4% on everything — win, trifecta, pick six, etc. Payouts on exotics, which had a takeout of 25.75%, will be 20% greater than before. “It will be like having a built-in rebate benefiting the $2 bettor as well as the $2,000 bettor,” said Maryland Jockey Club president Lou Raffeto. Wow. Especially because, as Michael points out on Curb My Enthusiam, Laurel is Magna-owned. Could this be the start of something?
Ellis Park led the reduced-takeout charge with the opening of its meet on July 8, offering 4% takeout on their pick four wager, which has attracted bigger handle for that bet. During the meet’s first five days, Ellis’ pick four pool averaged $18,973. During the second (skipping over July 15, when racing was canceled due to weather), the pick four pool averaged $46,180 — a 143% increase. And check out the difference in payoffs (Ellis, PDF).

Posted in Handicapping on July 18, 2007

Keep an Eye On

– Trainer Barry Abrams and apprentice Joe Talamo at Hollywood. The pair have won four of five in the past three weeks; their overall percentage is 36% for 2006-2007. Talamo is also doing well with horses from trainer Vladimir Cerin’s barn, winning three of eight in the last month and finishing second or third in four others, giving the pair an 88% ITM rate for June.
– Debut starters by first-crop sire Hook and Ladder, who got his third winner out of five runners to race so far on Thursday at Belmont. I Promise, out of the Affirmed mare Affirm Promise, paid $26.80 to win race two, a five furlong maiden special weight.

Posted in Handicapping on June 29, 2007

Help Hurricane Survivors — Play the Ponies

Evangeline Downs is donating all of its revenues — including simulcasting proceeds — from Sunday night’s card to Hurricane Katrina relief. Hoping to encourage participation, Alan of Left at the Gate had the great idea of getting racing bloggers to each analyze one of the day’s races. Alan’s done the second, Patrick of Pulling Hair and Betting Horses has the fourth, and Ruben of Your Average Horseplayer takes on the seventh. I’m doing the fifth, an open claiming $4000, six furlong event with a $13,000 purse.
The field of six entered in this race has one standout — Denton County. The horse won his last, a six furlong, claiming $5000 race, by four lengths after running second in a similar race just a couple of weeks before, while earning a 75 Beyer figure for the former and a 73 for the latter. The minor class drop only gives rise to one question — by how many lengths will he win this one?
That Denton County is such a sure thing (or, as sure as any horse can ever be in any race) means that his odds will be low. The morning line puts him at 6-5. I wouldn’t be surprised to see even lower. For a little value, I’d box him with Eastwood’s Song, on the morning line at 6-1. Trained by Bubba Cascio, Eastwood’s Song is making his first start since running in June 24 claiming $10,000 miler where he finished sixth and was never close to the pace. Cascio, who’s 30% with returnees, has used the freshening-class drop combo with some success on Eastwood’s Song in the past. He figures to give Denton Country a little competition here.
Results: More than $60,000 was raised for hurricane relief by Evangeline Downs, with Louisiana horsemen committing their earnings from the night’s card to the cause as well (Thoroughbred Times). Congrats to Alan, who hit the second with Paris Pride and a trifecta that paid $180. I was right about Eastwood’s Song finishing right behind Denton County in the fifth — unfortunately, the two finished third and fourth, not first and second.

Posted in Handicapping on September 3, 2005

NTRA Contest Suffered Glitches

Said NTRA spokesman Eric Wing, explaining to Matt Hegarty that “computer malfunctions caused wrong results to be posted during the day on the site’s leader board, and that the NTRA took the board down in order to fix the problems.” As for allegations of past-posting — “That absolutely did not happen” (Daily Racing Form). So, all is well now and the Claiming Crown Contest was not compromised in any way. This guy isn’t buying that.

Posted in Handicapping on July 20, 2005