JC / Railbird

Handicapping Archive

Resolutions Already Broken

John Pricci makes some New Year’s anti-resolutions:

I make no resolutions, usually, but this year I’m making an exception: I resolve to play no more superfectas. I’ve hit one — just one — in the past four years. Record keeping — possibly my last New Year’s resolution, made in 2004 — can yield useful nuggets.

Posted in Handicapping on January 2, 2008

Pletcher Strikes Out Again

With Argentina scratched from the third race, trainer Todd Pletcher had his best chance for a win today with Wingspan, who went off as the 1-2 favorite in the allowance event and then ran like a 10-1 shot, finishing third. Pletcher went 0-for-5 today, bringing his record to 0-for-26 since August 11. It’s time to ask: What’s up with Pletcher at the Spa? The supertrainer is 24% wins, 53% in the money for the past 90 days overall; 33% wins, 64% in the money at Monmouth this summer; 23% wins, 54% in the money at Arlington. But at Saratoga, he’s 12% wins, 35% in the money. That’s a cold streak for TPI, a trend that can’t be ignored …

Posted in Handicapping on August 22, 2007

Laurel Cuts Takeout to 10%

Laurel joins the reduced-takeout revolution, at least for the summer, cutting takeout on all wagers to 10% for their upcoming 10-day meet. With an additional state-required 1.4% withheld, takeout is a mere 11.4% on everything — win, trifecta, pick six, etc. Payouts on exotics, which had a takeout of 25.75%, will be 20% greater than before. “It will be like having a built-in rebate benefiting the $2 bettor as well as the $2,000 bettor,” said Maryland Jockey Club president Lou Raffeto. Wow. Especially because, as Michael points out on Curb My Enthusiam, Laurel is Magna-owned. Could this be the start of something?
Ellis Park led the reduced-takeout charge with the opening of its meet on July 8, offering 4% takeout on their pick four wager, which has attracted bigger handle for that bet. During the meet’s first five days, Ellis’ pick four pool averaged $18,973. During the second (skipping over July 15, when racing was canceled due to weather), the pick four pool averaged $46,180 — a 143% increase. And check out the difference in payoffs (Ellis, PDF).

Posted in Handicapping on July 18, 2007

Keep an Eye On

– Trainer Barry Abrams and apprentice Joe Talamo at Hollywood. The pair have won four of five in the past three weeks; their overall percentage is 36% for 2006-2007. Talamo is also doing well with horses from trainer Vladimir Cerin’s barn, winning three of eight in the last month and finishing second or third in four others, giving the pair an 88% ITM rate for June.
– Debut starters by first-crop sire Hook and Ladder, who got his third winner out of five runners to race so far on Thursday at Belmont. I Promise, out of the Affirmed mare Affirm Promise, paid $26.80 to win race two, a five furlong maiden special weight.

Posted in Handicapping on June 29, 2007