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Handicapping Archive

Winners Win Races

Seven weeks into the meet, Steve Zacks runs some Gulfstream stats and finds recent wins matter:

Winners win races! Be they trainers, jockeys or the horses themselves. A recent win is an important factor to take into consideration in handicapping. After eliminating the races for maidens, 249 races for winners have been offered. Of those winners, 183 had won at least one of their previous five starts, and 59 were repeating a last-out victory. From the 59 repeaters, 24 had won at least one other race in their last five.

Zacks doesn’t provide the total number of starters who won last out, but it’s probably safe to assume the percentage is lower than the 23% of winners who won last out.

Posted in Handicapping on February 20, 2008

Today’s Longshot Flyer

AQU, R2: E Z Dollar (ML 10-1). [Results: Wearing blinkers for the first time, E Z Dollar drew clear in the stretch, paid $19.60 to win.]

Posted in Handicapping on January 31, 2008

At the Red Rock …

And an hour to go before the first mandatory race of the National Handicapping Championship. I’m in Las Vegas for the event, which appears to be off to a good start, and that’s about the only insight I can provide. Check out DRF for contest recaps and standings and John Pricci’s NHC and World Series reports on Horse Race Insider for updates.

Posted in Handicapping on January 25, 2008

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