JC / Railbird

Handicapping Archive

The Bartender’s Tips

Last Saturday, the Happy Handicapper joined 91 others in an annual handicapping contest at Batavia Downs and lost badly: “He suffered one of the worst days of his handicapping life. He went 0 for 10 and lost all but $30 of his $1,000 contest bankroll. This was bad enough. But then his journalistic duties required him to interview the winner, a 36-year-old bartender named Dennis Duffy. Not only did Duffy turn his contest bankroll into $6,118, he also won about $5,000 in real money by wagering on his selections and hitting both of the day’s Pick 4s.”
There was some good to be gleaned though: “Duffy, a nice guy and a serious horseplayer with several other tournament titles under his belt, had a lot to teach the H.H. about playing contests and playing horses. First lesson: It’s never over until it’s over.” Also, look for big trainer and jockey changes, and pay attention to the pace. (Buffalo News)

Posted in Handicapping on November 13, 2004

Quick and Easy

Don’t want to spend 100 hours handicapping the Breeders’ Cup? Steven Crist offers “the best 10-minute Breeders’ Cup handicapping method I can think of.” Ooh, what that might be? “Call it the Beyer Index System. The BIS is pretty simple. We take the Beyer Index, which is the average winning Beyer Speed Figure for each of the Breeders’ Cup races since the figs were first published in 1990, and we see who in each field has already run that quickly or come very close. For overseas shippers, we use the handy if overly simplistic formula of Timeform-minus-13 equals Beyer.” (Daily Racing Form)

Posted in Handicapping on October 21, 2004

The Best Time to Play

Jay Cronley muses on the psychology of horseplayers. “Some people don’t even know there is a psychology to gambling, another large beer please Mister Bartender. Concerning the handicapping end of the game, a great horse player will pass on a race if the numbers or animals or connections aren’t right. Pass a race if an ex-spouse has a lawyer calling? Never.” (ESPN)

Posted in Handicapping on September 10, 2004

Recency Rules Have Changed

Except when they haven’t. “Back in the day, the two bedrock rules for any respectable system were usually a) Eliminate any horse who has not run in the past 30 days and b) Award extra credit to any horse coming off a sharp race in the past 30 days,” writes Dave Litfin. “The new order of things is closer to the following: Rule No. 1: Accept as contenders any horses who have not run in the past 30 days. Rule No. 2: Eliminate any horse coming off a sharp race in the past 30 days.” But then along comes a horse like Midas Eyes, who won the Forego Handicap 10 days after an allowance-level win. Here’s the only rule in handicapping: Any rule you come up with will be proven wrong. (Daily Racing Form)

Posted in Handicapping on September 5, 2004