JC / Railbird

Handicapping Archive

Resolutions Already Broken

John Pricci makes some New Year’s anti-resolutions:

I make no resolutions, usually, but this year I’m making an exception: I resolve to play no more superfectas. I’ve hit one — just one — in the past four years. Record keeping — possibly my last New Year’s resolution, made in 2004 — can yield useful nuggets.

Posted in Handicapping on January 2, 2008

Pletcher Strikes Out Again

With Argentina scratched from the third race, trainer Todd Pletcher had his best chance for a win today with Wingspan, who went off as the 1-2 favorite in the allowance event and then ran like a 10-1 shot, finishing third. Pletcher went 0-for-5 today, bringing his record to 0-for-26 since August 11. It’s time to ask: What’s up with Pletcher at the Spa? The supertrainer is 24% wins, 53% in the money for the past 90 days overall; 33% wins, 64% in the money at Monmouth this summer; 23% wins, 54% in the money at Arlington. But at Saratoga, he’s 12% wins, 35% in the money. That’s a cold streak for TPI, a trend that can’t be ignored …

Posted in Handicapping on August 22, 2007

Laurel Cuts Takeout to 10%

Laurel joins the reduced-takeout revolution, at least for the summer, cutting takeout on all wagers to 10% for their upcoming 10-day meet. With an additional state-required 1.4% withheld, takeout is a mere 11.4% on everything — win, trifecta, pick six, etc. Payouts on exotics, which had a takeout of 25.75%, will be 20% greater than before. “It will be like having a built-in rebate benefiting the $2 bettor as well as the $2,000 bettor,” said Maryland Jockey Club president Lou Raffeto. Wow. Especially because, as Michael points out on Curb My Enthusiam, Laurel is Magna-owned. Could this be the start of something?
Ellis Park led the reduced-takeout charge with the opening of its meet on July 8, offering 4% takeout on their pick four wager, which has attracted bigger handle for that bet. During the meet’s first five days, Ellis’ pick four pool averaged $18,973. During the second (skipping over July 15, when racing was canceled due to weather), the pick four pool averaged $46,180 — a 143% increase. And check out the difference in payoffs (Ellis, PDF).

Posted in Handicapping on July 18, 2007