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Racing Archive

Not So Classic

Byron Rogers in Thursday’s TDN (PDF):

Without milkshakes and steroids the horses that have been selected for and trained as “classic types” by bloodstock agents, owners and trainers are now exposed for the sprinters that they genetically are.

I speculated about something similar in 2013, after Oxbow won the Preakness Stakes in a slow time and Bill Oppenheim brought up the trend of declining Beyer speed figures in the spring classics. Commenting on the Belmont Stakes figure collapse that began with Da’Tara in 2008, I wrote:

[T]he data suggest that there may be additional factors at work, such as changing training practices and the elimination of routine steroid use.

Rogers reports data, in the form of a genetic study done by his pedigree consulting practice on 1500+ horses, that found “the North American breeding population has the second highest percentage of horses that have been genetically selected for sprinting,” and concludes that there’s no reversing that trend, which began decades ago, without “significant structural changes.” If that happened, in his view, the game likely wouldn’t see a renewed emphasis on breeding for distance expressed in speed figures for at least 15-20 years. That’s probably more time than interests the market.

For a sense of how much things have changed (beyond the classic races), consider these statistics tweeted by @o_crunk last fall (via Sid Fernando):

Percentage of US races longer than 1M on dirt and synth:
1991 – 19.91%
1996 – 16.78%
2001 – 15.57%
2006 – 14.31%
2011 – 13.46%

Percentage of US races on dirt and synth at 6F or less:
1991 – 54.24%
1996 – 51.30%
2001 – 50.31%
2006 – 50.58%
2011 – 49.71%

Percentage of US dirt and synth races at less than 6F:
1991 – 13.27%
1996 – 15.15%
2001 – 17.92%
2006 – 21.60%
2011 – 23.25%

So, shortening the Kentucky Derby to nine furlongs from 10, and the Belmont Stakes to 10 furlongs from 12, as Oppenheim suggests in his most recent column (PDF), would more closely align the classic races with the realities of contemporary American racing and breeding. Whether that’s a worthy goal or not, I’ll leave to breeders and pedigree experts to debate.

Posted in Racing on May 10, 2014 / Tagged Breeding, Race Distances, Speed Figures, Stamina, Statistics, Triple Crown

More Speed

Interesting reading from TimeformUS about how California Chrome’s Kentucky Derby figure was revised from a preliminary 104 to a final 110:

… we believe the wind and maintenance and distance … combined to make the final time seem even slower than it really was. California Chrome may not have broken any records, but his TimeformUS Speed Figure suggests his Derby was stronger than some may think.

I guess we won’t know until after the Preakness Stakes, or possibly later in the year, but I share the sense that his Derby win was better than the figures look, especially taking the wind into account for the first quarter, during which California Chrome had to make use of his tactical speed to secure a position rating off the early pace. He’s the only starter who ran a sub :24 first quarter to finish in the top four — the closest any of the other 10 who did the same finished was fifth, and six in that group finished 14th through 19th.

See also: Rob Bingel’s analysis of wind and time in the Derby (PDF) (via).

Related: Bob Ehalt talks to Len Friedman about California Chrome’s 7 1/4 sheets figure, “the slowest number since Cannonade earned an 8 in 1974.”

5/12/14 Addendum: Mike Watchmaker on the Derby Beyer speed figure:

… in this Derby, an incredible 15 of the 19 starters received lower Beyers than they did in their prior starts. In fact, it is incredible when such a large percentage of the field tails off Beyer-wise in any race, and is immediate cause to question the veracity of the winning fig.

The revised TimeformUS figure is roughly equivalent to 103 on the Beyer scale, which is still a regression from California Chrome’s previous 107 and 108, but seems a more plausible number than the 97 Beyer given to the Derby.

Posted in Racing on May 9, 2014 / Tagged California Chrome, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby, Speed Figures, The Sheets, TimeformUS

Three Days Out

When asked, before the 1983 Preakness, about Marfa’s quarter crack:

Lukas responded: “When you get so close to one of these Triple Crown races with a good horse you do everything you can to make the race.”

The reporter countered with this remark that ended the press conference: “That sounds great Mr. Lukas, but isn’t it the horse that’s going to have to run around the track on Saturday; not you?”

Deputed Testamony won, Marfa finished fourth.

Posted in Racing on May 8, 2014 / Tagged D. Wayne Lukas, Deputed Testamony, Marfa, Preakness Stakes, Racing History