JC / Railbird

Triple Crown Archive

Belmont Possible for Rags

Curlin and Hard Spun are in for sure, Carl Nafzger is now saying Street Sense is possible (although still looking unlikely), and Todd Pletcher is dangling the tantalizing possibility that Rags to Riches will show up:

Rags to Riches has won three grade one events this year; if there’s a filly out there capable of taking on Curlin, she’s it.

Posted in Triple Crown on May 22, 2007

Preakness Wrap-up

– Curlin’s Preakness Beyer came back as 111, a big number for the colt, who mounted a “stunning, brilliant” (WaPo) stretch assault on Street Sense after the Derby winner blew by him at the top of the lane. “Curlin just has this way about him, the last part of the race he wants to win,” said jockey Robby Albarado (NY Times). Street Sense duplicated his Kentucky Derby effort, but lost focus near the end, losing to Curlin by a head. “He just got to gawking 40 yards from home and he just got outrun,” said Calvin Borel (NY Post).
– Don’t bet on Street Sense starting in the Belmont, said trainer Carl Nafzger. “What’s the point?” (Blood-Horse).
– Third place finisher Hard Spun is still being considered for the race though. “We came into the Triple Crown thinking we were going to go to all three races,” said trainer Larry Jones. “Hard Spun’s mother was a stakes winner at a mile-and-a-half. There’s no reason to think he can’t do it because he sure won’t have to run this fast early next time” (NY Post). Let me admit now that I was wrong about this colt — I thought he’d finish much further back, after his big effort in the Derby, but Hard Spun ran another good race and hung on gamely at the end, despite that too early move at the half. I’ll respect him much more in three weeks.
– And the second guessing begins: “Mario Pino, who rode Hard Spun to a third-place finish in the Preakness, and Calvin Borel, on runner-up Street Sense, both made moves in the heat of battle that may have affected the outcome” (MSNBC).
– Also on Saturday: An obviously emotional Michael Matz was in the Pimlico winner’s circle accepting a trophy from Roy and Gretchen Jackson after Chelokee won the first running of the Barbaro Stakes (DRF).

Posted in Triple Crown on May 20, 2007

Preakness Day

It’s a picture perfect day in Baltimore; the Pimlico track is fast, the turf firm, and speed is holding. Results are chalky through the eighth race (in which Diabolical almost set a new track record winning the Maryland Breeders’ Cup Sprint); jockeys Ramon Dominguez, Rafael Bejarano, and Mario Pino have won two each so far. Street Sense is 7-5 in the early Preakness wagering, Curlin the second choice at 3-1.
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Rain! And suddenly, Hard Spun is tempting with 4-1 odds. Less than 20 minutes to post and I’m reconsidering my wagering plan …
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And the winner is … Curlin, by a short head over Street Sense. There’ll be no Triple Crown this year.

Posted in Triple Crown on May 19, 2007

Preakness Picks

1. Street Sense: At 7-5 on the morning line, and very likely even money in actual wagering, the Derby winner is hardly a tempting betting proposition, but he has a terrific post position outside Hard Spun and possible pacesetter Flying First Class and there’s plenty of speed in here to set up for his closing style. Plus, his class, speed, fitness, etc. make it difficult to get past him. So, I won’t even try.
2. Circular Quay: Consider the Derby a prep for the Preakness for this Pletcher-trained closer.
3. Curlin: I wasn’t on the Curlin bandwagon going into the Derby, but was impressed with the way he got up for third in that race after being shuffled back and blocked through the early stages.
4. King of the Roxy: The Santa Anita Derby second place finisher comes into the Preakness fresh.
5. Xchanger: Wire to wire over the track in the Federico Tesio last month, with a trainer who’s 47% at Pimlico. No surprise if he shows up in the exotics.
Looking for excuses after: Hard Spun. We’ve seen Hard Spun’s bottom. We saw it when he tired in the last furlong of his pre-Derby workout, we saw it again when he tired in the Derby. If ever a horse was ready to bounce, it’s this one.
Trailing, by several lengths, at the end: Flying First Class, Mint Slewlep, and C P West.

Posted in Triple Crown on May 18, 2007