JC / Railbird

Kentucky Derby

Where They Prepped

With Uncle Mo back in training (the early Derby favorite breezed three furlongs in 39:95 at Palm Meadows this morning) and the Holy Bull Stakes (last Derby winner, Barbaro ’06) kicking off Gulfstream’s Derby prep series this afternoon, it seemed a good time to look back at the stakes in which the top three Kentucky Derby finishers of the last 10 years prepped (wins are bolded in the spreadsheet below). Considering how much prep schedules and training regimens have changed in just the past decade, it’s practically quaint that there was a time a Derby prospect could start in both the Wood Memorial and the Florida Derby, as did 2003 runner-up Empire Maker and 2001 winner Monarchos. And the Tampa Bay Derby, run in March, has become such a key prep, it’s surprising that its rise only dates back to Bluegrass Cat in 2006.

It was Street Sense, though, who in 2007 elevated the Tampa Bay Derby into a race that trainer Todd Pletcher is now seriously considering for Uncle Mo’s first start of the year. Street Sense won at Tampa, then lost the Blue Grass, and is one of six Kentucky Derby winners of the past 10 years who didn’t win his final prep. Of the four who did, three were undefeated going into the Derby, including Smarty Jones, who in 2004 was the first undefeated winner of the Kentucky Derby since Seattle Slew in 1977. Barbaro accomplished the same feat in 2006, then Big Brown did in 2008. Since 2001, there have been five unbeaten horses among 188 Derby starters — the three Derby winners already mentioned, plus Curlin in 2007 (he finished third), and Showing Up in 2006 (sixth). Make of this what you will: As Derby prospects make fewer starts, and their spots are more carefully chosen, there’s a greater chance an undefeated horse (or horses) will enter the Derby. And yet, a record of three wins and four in-the-money finishes from five such starters isn’t to be dismissed.

Related: Historical criteria and Derby winners’ prep schedules, 1998-2010.

Posted in Racing on January 30, 2011 / Tagged Derby Preps, Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Stakes Races, Trends / Comments Off on Where They Prepped

East Coast Bias

It’s that time of year again, when handicappers toss aside the disappointments of last spring and savor the pleasure of a fresh start on the Derby trail, when the horse who could win the Triple Crown is all unblemished potential. Lists appear like croci — every 3-year-old could be the one.

I’ll be adding to the list-mania, beginning next week, when the Paulick Derby Index returns for its third season, and one question preoccupies me as I consider who’s a top 10 Kentucky Derby contender — what to do with California sophomores such as Tapizar, wire-to-wire winner of the Sham Stakes? The hard new surface lauded as being similar to Churchill Downs’ deep dirt in the first days of training last December is turning out dazzling times that are anything but Churchill-like. Sand added to the track last week slowed things down a little, but front-runners retained their edge, and on Thursday, a $10,000 claimer named Self Insured ran a mile in 1:34. That’s quick.

It all makes me a bit nostalgic for the synthetic surface. The new surface is so kind to speed, it makes me doubtful it’s doing much for stamina.

Related: The new surface also continues to be kind to trainer Bob Baffert.

Posted in Racing on January 28, 2011 / Tagged Bob Baffert, Derby Prospects, Kentucky Derby, Lists, Santa Anita, Speedballs, Track Surfaces / 1 comment

Stat for Thought

Jeremy Plonk on the Derby-Classic connection:

There has never been a Breeders’ Cup Classic run at Churchill Downs that didn’t have at least one Kentucky Derby alumni finish in the superfacta …

Don’t be so quick to dismiss Paddy O’Prado?

Posted in Miscellany on October 28, 2010 / Tagged Breeders' Cup, Churchill Downs, Classic, Kentucky Derby, Statistics / 2 comments

Talking with Todd

Tim Wilkin interviews trainer Todd Pletcher:

Q: When you won the Kentucky Derby in May — your first — how much of a relief was that to you, especially with all the scrutiny people put on you [he had started 28 horses in the Derby, four of them this year, before getting a win]?

A: I don’t know. I didn’t really feel like I thought I would feel. It didn’t feel like a big relief. It was exciting, it was great to have done it. Maybe I looked at the Derby a little differently than most people maybe perceived it. I have an appreciation for how hard it is to win, how many factors have to go right and there are so many things out of your control that have a say in the outcome of the race. I never just assumed it would happen. People kept saying, ‘you are going to win the Derby, you are going to win the Derby eventually.’ I was certainly happy when it happened.

Understated, as always.

See also, response re: trainer Derek Ryan’s post-Whitney comments.

Weekend Review and Blind Luck over on BC360.

Posted in Racing on August 23, 2010 / Tagged Interviews, Kentucky Derby, Saratoga, Todd Pletcher, Trainers / Comments Off on Talking with Todd