Fast Track
What to look for when Santa Anita opens with its new dirt surface:
… welcome back front-runners to a surface that track project manager Ted Malloy expects will reward fast horses.
“A fast track, if it’s not tiring, is always speed-favoring,” Malloy said.
“I must have worked 20-something horses that first week and 20-something the second, and the track was fast,†she said. “Like holy guacamole fast.”
And:
“This track is going to be very good. It will probably be a little speed biased. I think dirt handicappers are going to love it.”
New York Turf Tip
Cornelio Velasquez has been winning 16 percent of his turf starts but because he attracts little wagering attention, he shows a flat-bet profit of +0.52.
One of my favorite jockey plays: Cornelio, longshot, turf.
Today’s Longshot Flyer
BEL, R4: I haven’t done one of these in a while, but while handicapping the $1 million Pick 6 carryover at Belmont this afternoon, a longshot caught my eye in the very first leg. In a field stocked with well-bred and well-meant babies, Cellar Dweller (20-1 ML) hardly stands out coming from a low-percentage barn and possessing an insubstantial auction price, but the first-time starter does have a super workout pattern, with his last move a bullet three furlongs out of the gate, and a decent turf pedigree. A son of Rahy (15% with turf starters), Cellar Dweller is also half to three winners over the turf, including stakes placed filly Savage Beauty. And while this little detail may end up not too relevant today, it is certainly interesting and merits some attention that Cellar Dweller’s pedigree includes full siblings Glorious Song (dam of Rahy) and Devil’s Bag (via dam side). Glorious Song was 1980 champion older female, winner of multiple graded stakes, and also the dam of turf champion Singspiel; Devil’s Bag was 1983 champion juvenile and the early favorite for the 1984 Kentucky Derby before he was retired due to injury and sent to stud with a record syndication deal. [2:15 pm update: Should have checked the scratches earlier … Cellar Dweller is out.]
For the Pick 6, a $240 $192 caveman special: R4 #4/6/3/12/8; R5 #1(A)/3/4; R6 #1(A)/6; R7 #6 (the sole single); R8 #7/6; R9 #7/10. [Results: 1/1/1/2/1/3, or 4-of-6, or nothing (this time). Considering that I have not been handicapping or playing much recently, though, not bad.]
Today’s Longshot Flyer
SAR, R4: Special Detail (ML 12-1). Starts off a dismal debut in which the Johar filly was beaten by more than 33 lengths, but I’m intrigued by the distance and surface switch.
Results: Bet down to 6-1, which totally killed my interest in this filly, and good thing, since she tracked the pace early, then dropped like a rock to last in the stretch. The winner was 2-1 favorite High Cry, a Street Cry filly debuting for trainer Todd Pletcher, now 4-for-12 with 2-year-old first-time starters at the Spa (and all four of those wins with rider John Velazquez up). I did get to feel smart in the second at least, sticking with Digger off his odd claim last out in a race with conditions (“For three year olds and upward which have started for a claiming price of $25,000 or less in 2006-08”) that seemed beautifully suited. He went to post as the fourth choice, willingly waited for the dueling leaders to tire, and paid $9.20 to win by two lengths.
Thanks to 6-1 Raffie’s Treasure in the feature, trainer Dominic Galluscio avoided “getting the duck” this meet, scoring his first win after four seconds and two thirds over the past couple weeks. If I Lost My Choo hadn’t scratched, it’s possible Galluscio would have added another second to his record, but with the overwhelming likely favorite out, the homebred filly was free to race clear on the outside, avoiding the flying mud, then draw away to a visually impressive 9 3/4 length win over the sloppy track (final time for the 1 1/8 miles, 1:53.48). “We were very fortunate that [the race] came off the turf,” said Galluscio (Daily Gazette).
Raffie’s Treasure entering the winner’s circle after the ninth.
Today’s Longshot Flyer
SAR, R8: Halo Najib (ML 10-1). The one-mile turf Majestic Light comes up tough with Prussian (second to Virginia Derby winner Gio Ponti in the Hill Prince) and Luck Money (good enough as a 2-year-old to run third to Henrythenavigator in G2 company) entered, but Halo Najib gets some class relief regardless and maybe even some pace at which to run.
Results: Halo Najib showed zip and was an underlay at 8-1, finishing seventh, many lengths behind Luck Money and Prussian. Since this was a flyer, I was unperturbed at the loss, which was more than made up for by 6-1 Any Limit (with Zada Belle underneath) in the Honorable Miss (true, I told this person while in the paddock). “Wire to wire, that was nice,” said trainer Allen Jerkens, who did not go to the winner’s circle. The mare will point to the Ballerina.
Any Limit returning to the winner’s circle after the ninth.
Today’s Longshot Flyer
BEL, R8: So It Goes (ML 20-1). Lightly raced, gets blinkers, class test in the French Colonial, a delightfully competitive Thursday afternoon stakes with a ho-hum 3-1 morning line favorite in El Sultry Sun, coming off a seventh-place finish in the rain-soaked G3 Colonial Turf Cup. Also of much interest as a live longshot is Dynhocracy (ML 10-1), who had a troubled trip and finished fifth in the June G3 Hill Prince, his first start in nearly four months. Willsboro Point (ML 6-1), a smart claim for trainer Scott Schwartz three back, looks the most likely pacesetter, and I wouldn’t put it past him, with Eibar Coa up, to steal the race with soft fractions.
[Results: So It Goes, sent off as the longest shot in the field at 14-1, finished fourth. No early speed, that one, despite the first-time blinkers. Fourth choice Willsboro Point won by 1 1/2 lengths at 5-1 and did so by rating kindly, settling in behind an eager Run Sully Run and waiting through fractions of :48.88 and 1:12.87 before drawing away and running the final eighth in a stellar :11.78. The Point Given gelding (out of G3-winning mare Petrouchka) claimed for $35,000 by Schwartz on May 24 now boasts a record of 8-4-0-2.]
Baughs of Hollywood
The card today (July 5) at Hollywood is among the best I’ve seen this year, and the $1.2-million carryover certainly adds some excitement. Here are some thoughts:
Race 3, $100,000 HolJuvCh-G3
Should a Lightnin N Thunder two-year-old ever cost $400,000? I guess we won’t find out today since Nochangenweather scratched, but that is a hefty price for a colt by a $4,000 stallion.
This seems like a race where you either love the morning line favorite, #4 Azul Leon, or you have go really deep.
Race 5, $300,000 VanityH-G1
I can’t remember the last time I thought a horse was as unbeatable in a spot as Zenyatta looks in this race. Still, I think there could be some value in beating Tough Tiz’s Sis underneath.
How great was last year’s Kentucky Oaks? Rags to Riches won with Octave, TTS, Sealy Hill, and Dreaming of Anna all in the mix as well. Wow!
Race 7, $750,000 CshCllMl-G2
I love the way Lady of Venice is coming into this race and the way Kiaran has talked about this mare in preparing to ship west. Ventura will be a quarter the price she was last out and is an underlay.
Race 8, $66,000 AlwN1X
#11 Tizsweetdreams will take too much money here and is a nice horse to beat while starting a pick four. I’ll use #s 3, 5, 10.
Race 9, $750,000 AmrcnOks-G1
Another vulnerable favorite (morning line, at least) in #1 Pure Clan, who despite the undefeated record on turf, just doesn’t strike me as a Grade 1 horse going 1 1/4 miles on the weeds.
I’m looking Eurovision here with #9 Carribean Sunset and #3 Satan’s Circus, both of which are win bets at their morning line prices. These are just legitimate Grade 1 horses whereas the American entrants have not proved themselves at that level yet.
Race 10, $300,000 TrplBndH-G1
Street Boss is boss. There’s speed in the race, and he will be rolling late.
Race 11, $65,000 Md Sp Wt
If #9 Surprises Welcome moves up on turf, then she’s an easy winner here. If she doesn’t, then #1s Alley Theater or #5 Cheryl’s Surprise look to offer the most value.
I was at Santa Anita Park on Sunday in which there was a double carryover, and the atmosphere was electric. I can’t imagine what Hollywood Park will be like going into that sixth race today.
It’s easy to pick apart what’s wrong with horse racing, but this Hollywood card shows you what’s right: Full fields, a chance for a big score, Grade 1 racing … enjoy!
Neither Salty nor Sour
Play of the day: Bitterbutsweet (#3) in the Flawlessly Stakes (Race 8) on Friday at Hollywood Park.
I’ve had this one on my watch list since before her debut because she is kin to For Always, a horse who impressed me as a two-year-old on the Kentucky circuit.
Obviously, Bitterbutsweet is a long way from Turf Paradise (where she was a stakes winner) and Northern California (where she finished second behind a next out Grade 2 winner), but Tarabilla Farms saw something it liked when it bought this Lemon Drop Kid filly and shipped her south to the barn of David Hofmans.
Yeah, said trainer is winless at the meet, and Aaron Gryder isn’t my favorite turf jockey, but if Hofmans gets any improvement out of this one following the seven-week layoff then she’s in the mix at 15-to-1 ML.
Refreshing
Medication positives and (negative) EPO tests, nothingness and debates over the definition of blogging — reading the latest DRF+ column by James Quinn is a tonic, because it’s about handicapping — specifically, about pairs of figures as predictors of form. Remember handicapping? It’s what we used to do, before the Triple Crown season imploded.
Today’s Longshot Flyer
BEL, R8: Unbridled Refrain (ML 20-1). If scratched/off turf, Pluracity (ML 12-1). Looking for the former to wake up on grass, like the speed and in-the-money record of the latter. [Results: Unbridled Refrain scratched, which was probably just as well, since this race came up quite competitive. Pluracity tracked the pace, then faded to finish fifth at 7-1. This was the leg that kicked me out of the pick six, leaving me in the running for 5-of-6 only if either Ten Forty or Stand Pat won the ninth race. Ten Forty did, at 3-5, but the pick six, which had swelled to $4.4 million by the start, still paid a generous $103,754 to 29 winners, thanks to 10-1 Youbethecan in the fifth and 23-1 Willsboro Point in the sixth. Willsboro should have been the longshot flyer here, since he’s the sort of horse I love in these spots — lightly-raced, solid efforts in three of his five starts, beat non-winners of two last out, etc. — and figured to be overlooked in a way Pluracity wouldn’t in the eighth. Next time.]
About
Jessica Chapel writes and edits in Massachusetts. Railbird is a Thoroughbred horse racing blog published from June 2004 to July 2019. More / Contact
Elsewhere
Find Jessica on Pinboard and Instagram, Railbird on LibraryThing and Twitter.
Etc.
Links
Search
Boston Racing
Spreadsheets/Data
← Home
Copyright © 2000-2023 by Jessica Chapel. All rights reserved.