JC / Railbird

Handicapping Archive

Fast Track

What to look for when Santa Anita opens with its new dirt surface:

… welcome back front-runners to a surface that track project manager Ted Malloy expects will reward fast horses.

“A fast track, if it’s not tiring, is always speed-favoring,” Malloy said.

See also:

“I must have worked 20-something horses that first week and 20-something the second, and the track was fast,” she said. “Like holy guacamole fast.”

And:

“This track is going to be very good. It will probably be a little speed biased. I think dirt handicappers are going to love it.”

Posted in Handicapping on December 23, 2010 / Tagged California, Dirt, DRF, Santa Anita, Speed Bias, Speedballs, Track Surfaces

New York Turf Tip

From Dick Powell:

Cornelio Velasquez has been winning 16 percent of his turf starts but because he attracts little wagering attention, he shows a flat-bet profit of +0.52.

One of my favorite jockey plays: Cornelio, longshot, turf.

Posted in Handicapping on July 2, 2010

Today’s Longshot Flyer

BEL, R4: I haven’t done one of these in a while, but while handicapping the $1 million Pick 6 carryover at Belmont this afternoon, a longshot caught my eye in the very first leg. In a field stocked with well-bred and well-meant babies, Cellar Dweller (20-1 ML) hardly stands out coming from a low-percentage barn and possessing an insubstantial auction price, but the first-time starter does have a super workout pattern, with his last move a bullet three furlongs out of the gate, and a decent turf pedigree. A son of Rahy (15% with turf starters), Cellar Dweller is also half to three winners over the turf, including stakes placed filly Savage Beauty. And while this little detail may end up not too relevant today, it is certainly interesting and merits some attention that Cellar Dweller’s pedigree includes full siblings Glorious Song (dam of Rahy) and Devil’s Bag (via dam side). Glorious Song was 1980 champion older female, winner of multiple graded stakes, and also the dam of turf champion Singspiel; Devil’s Bag was 1983 champion juvenile and the early favorite for the 1984 Kentucky Derby before he was retired due to injury and sent to stud with a record syndication deal. [2:15 pm update: Should have checked the scratches earlier … Cellar Dweller is out.]
For the Pick 6, a $240 $192 caveman special: R4 #4/6/3/12/8; R5 #1(A)/3/4; R6 #1(A)/6; R7 #6 (the sole single); R8 #7/6; R9 #7/10. [Results: 1/1/1/2/1/3, or 4-of-6, or nothing (this time). Considering that I have not been handicapping or playing much recently, though, not bad.]

Posted in Handicapping on October 22, 2008