JC / Railbird

Handicapping Archive

I Heart Synthetics

Thanks for all the great comments on this post linking to Andrew Beyer’s column about the Blue Grass. I’m reminded of why I enjoy this game so much: It’s a perpetual puzzle that attracts smart people and spirited discussion, and it’s one of the few hobbies or pursuits that doesn’t just reward contrarianism, but practically demands it.
I like synthetic surfaces: I went to Turfway in 2006 to see Polytrack up close, I started following the Southern California circuit with the advent of Cushion Track at Hollywood, I prefer playing Keeneland Polytrack to Keeneland dirt. Putting aside the safety question, I enjoy handicapping these surfaces. I like that stamina is rewarded and cheap speed folds, that new pedigree plays are popping up. Synthetics shake up the scene, create new challenges and betting opportunities, and if they’re properly installed and maintained, they play fair. Like commenter ‘Crunk, I’ve found there are differences between the surfaces — just as there between dirt tracks — and I’ve adjusted my handicapping.
I won’t argue that some surfaces aren’t quirkier than others — that the pick six at Keeneland went unhit for seven days and that favorites through Sunday had won only 18% of races (although, favorites did finish in the money 63% of the time, so it’s not total chaos in Kentucky), suggests horses and handicappers are struggling with the surface there — but neither am I willing to throw up my hands and declare synthetic track results bizarre and incomprehensible, at least not any more so than I would other surfaces, such as Aqueduct’s inner dirt mid-winter.
As for the Blue Grass and what it means for the Derby: Monba is a solid and versatile, if uninspiring, colt. Throw out the Fountain of Youth, credit his myectomy for the Blue Grass turnaround, and you’re left with a middling horse who could win the Derby if this year’s field were filled with similarly dull beasts. (Aside: When will horseplayers get disclosure of surgical procedures performed between races? It’s ridiculous that Monba flipped his palate and had throat surgery to prevent another displacement and that wasn’t officially reported anywhere.) Pyro didn’t take to the track and he didn’t show anything in the stretch. He seems to have come out of the race fine, so he’ll almost certainly bounce back to his pre-Keeneland performance level in the Derby, but it won’t be enough, no matter how well he works. That says more about the rigors of the Derby than it does about the surface of the Blue Grass.
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Related: Ellis Starr says “Adapt or die!” when it comes to synthetic surfaces. That’s harsher than I’d put it, but it’s not the worst advice …

Posted in Handicapping, Synthetic Surfaces on April 17, 2008

Synth to Dirt, No Problem

A little breakfast time research yields this nugget:

Of the 460 nominees to the Triple Crown, 61 have made the switch from a synthetic surface to a fast dirt track. Of those, 47 improved or replicated their synthetic form on dirt.

Details in this Google doc. Only horses who raced primarily on synthetics at the start of their careers and who switched from such a surface to a fast dirt track are included (so horses whose single dirt starts were over the Monmouth slop of the 2007 Breeders’ Cup are not represented). Also, I made no distinctions between synthetic surfaces and didn’t consider class or distance changes. Generally, results were marked positive (P) if a horse showed an improved BSF and/or finish position, negative (N) if the opposite, and consistent (C) if it ran +/- 3 BSF and/or showed similar placing.

The odds are good that the California synthetic surface form of Colonel John and Bob Black Jack will hold up at Churchill.

Related: Andrew Beyer rants:

But in the 3-year-old stakes races that precede the Kentucky Derby, the presence of synthetic tracks has not merely complicated the game. It has made rational handicapping judgments almost impossible.

Not really. Synthetics are different, but not inexplicable.

Posted in Handicapping, Racing on April 15, 2008 / Tagged Data, Kentucky Derby, Reference, Surface Changes, Synthetic Surfaces

Today’s Longshot Flyer

KEE, R5: Life Lesson (ML 12-1). [Results: Sent off at 7-1 odds, Life Lesson broke alertly, took an early lead, and gamely hung on through the stretch to win. But, she was disqualified and bumped to third for so-called interference after drifting into the path of Dan’s Pride — note, into the path, not into the horse or even all that near — who deadheated for second with Temper Temper. I’m quite disappointed.]
Kip Seville, a full sister to BC Mile winner Kip Deville (who captured the Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland on Friday in his return to the track), also starts in this race. The gray 3-year-old filly made her debut in February at the Fair Grounds in a turf route, a race in which she ran wide throughout and was never involved. She makes the switch to Polytrack here, cuts back to seven furlongs, gets blinkers, and at 15-1 morning line, warrants a look in this spot. [Showed some improvement with the blinkers and ran much closer to the pace; definitely one for the watch list.]

Posted in Handicapping on April 12, 2008

Also True of PPs

Bill James on baseball stats: “I would say generally that baseball statistics are always trying to mislead you, and that it is a constant battle not to be misled by them.”

Posted in Handicapping on April 2, 2008